2027 Polls: Peace Actors Call For Action On Early Warning Signs

By Suleiman Mbatiah

Kenya must act on early warning signs of electoral violence ahead of the 2027 General Election rather than wait for threats to escalate, MIDRIFT HURINET Executive Director Joseph Omondi has said.

Omondi said divisive political language, coded ethnic messages, hate speech, misinformation, threats, intimidation, gang mobilization, the manipulation of unemployed young people, attacks on women in public life and unresolved local grievances could signal rising tensions ahead of the elections.

Speaking at the International Day of Peace commemoration at Nyayo Gardens in Nakuru City today, Omondi said communities often detect tensions early, but warned that such information was of little value if it did not reach institutions capable of verifying the reports and responding to them.

“Early warning without early response is incomplete,” Omondi said, warning that communities lose confidence in public institutions when they report threats but receive neither feedback nor action.

He said an effective early warning system should enable communities to report emerging risks safely, allow institutions to verify information jointly, refer credible alerts to agencies with the appropriate mandate and capacity, and ensure responses are timely, proportionate, co-ordinated and respectful of human rights.

Omondi said an appropriate response would not always involve the deployment of security officers. Depending on the nature of a threat, he said, authorities could use dialogue, mediation, engagement with political leaders, action against hate speech, psychosocial support, protection of threatened individuals or the correction of harmful misinformation.

The warning came as Nakuru hosted the national commemoration against the backdrop of its history of post-election violence in 2007-08, when lives were lost, families were displaced, livelihoods destroyed and relations between neighbors severely damaged. Omondi said the county’s experience provided an opportunity to learn from the past while preparing for a peaceful 2027 election.

Governor Susan Kihika said Nakuru County’s diversity made the county a useful example of the challenges and opportunities involved in maintaining national cohesion.

“That is why it is fitting that we are gathered here in Nakuru. Nakuru is not merely a county on the map. Nakuru is Kenya in miniature,” Kihika said.

The governor cited the county’s population of more than 2.1 million people across 11 sub-counties and 55 wards, and said its diversity demonstrated the need to protect peaceful coexistence.

Kihika said peace was also built through access to public services and economic opportunities, pointing to healthcare, vocational training, early childhood education, agriculture, markets and sport as part of the county’s approach to social inclusion.

But she said the greatest threat to peace remained the use of ethnicity as a political tool as the country approaches the 2027 election.

“Tribalism does not begin with a stone. It begins with a word. It begins when a politician tells a young Kenyan that another Kenyan is their enemy. It begins when somebody turns a community into a political weapon,” Kihika said.

Kihika called on the National Cohesion and Integration Commission to intervene before hate speech and incitement develop into violence, and said enforcement should not depend on the identity or political standing of the person involved.

“Accountability must also be fair. It must apply regardless of the speaker’s tribe, political party, office or popularity. No Kenyan should be above the responsibility to protect our national fabric,” she said.

The National Cohesion and Integration Commission said it was strengthening its own mechanisms for preventing election-related violence, including early warning and early response.

NCIC chairman Bishop Dr Kepha Omae said the commission’s Uchaguzi Bila Noma, Second Edition roadmap provides for civic education, conflict prevention, early warning and early response, targeted peace messaging, stakeholder engagement and hate speech management.

Omae said Kenya had made progress towards peaceful elections but that ethnic mobilization, hate speech, political intolerance, misinformation and violence remained risks requiring continued vigilance.

“Political leaders carry a special responsibility,” Omae said, urging candidates to campaign on issues such as unemployment, the cost of living, health, education, housing, security and development rather than mobilizing citizens along ethnic, religious or regional lines.

He also warned against using young people as instruments of political violence, saying they should be given opportunities to participate in democracy rather than be recruited, financed or deployed against political opponents.

The commission said it was working with communities, national and county governments, political leaders, civil society, faith-based organizations, the media, women and young people to strengthen dialogue and address grievances before they harden into conflict. It has also established more than 1,000 Amani Clubs in schools to promote peace, diversity, tolerance, dialogue and responsible citizenship.

Omae also urged media organizations and digital content creators to verify information before publishing it and avoid amplifying messages intended to provoke communities against one another.

“Journalism and communication should help citizens make informed choices, not deepen division,” he said.

The NCIC chairman said the responsibility for peaceful elections extended beyond state institutions to political leaders, communities, civil society, the media and individual citizens.

“The Commission will continue to monitor emerging risks, strengthen early warning and response mechanisms, support dialogues, and work with partners across the country,” Omae said.

Omondi added that community peace committees would remain an important part of the early warning system because they are often the first to detect tensions, receive information and convene dialogue before disputes escalate.

He said the effectiveness of the country’s early warning architecture would depend on the relationships linking communities, peace committees, civil society, county administrators, NCIC, the National Steering Committee on Peacebuilding and Conflict Management, police and other responsible institutions.

The peacebuilding organization also called for women and young people to be recognized as monitors, mediators, peace ambassadors, decision-makers and leaders in preventing electoral violence rather than simply as beneficiaries of peace programs.

Omondi said the 2027 election should ultimately test the country’s ability to prevent violence rather than its capacity to respond after it has occurred.

“The 2027 General Elections should not become a test of how effectively we respond after violence has occurred. They should demonstrate how successfully we can prevent violence before it begins,” he said.